SOI Value is now going back down currently at a 6.66…three sixes, that says a lot about who’s messing with our winter hopes..the devil is in the details…lol! I say we will be in a very weak El Nino with a slight chance of a little more snow than we had last year… Which won’t be hard for nature to pull off at all…
Have some patience my friend. Don’t get so wrapped up in every model run.
Going to step away from the weather for a while, just not much going on in the way of snow with models basically unusable for any sort of forecasting, the El Nino not being able to get set up, just need to change the channel for a while.
Yeah the weak El Niño is really causing everything to just go crazy…the models, as well as the actual winter weather. I see the SOI values are still on the negative side but a tad bit less neagative then it was the day before, hopefully this doesn’t indicate another drive to the La Niña side again.
I’m at a loss…been following the weather for years now and have never seen the forecast models at odds with the indices like this before…even more odd…is that that models have been right at forecasting the warmth…it’s not like the models are fabricating the weather…the weather is actually happening like it’s forecasting….so I don’t…Read More
Checkout the 17th storm now….wow
We’ll see next week if it is there still. Does european or other models show anything?
18z GFS appears to be dropping the storm on the 10th a bit further south and east.
Welp! December 21st is the start of winter…if are still spiking into the 60s by the end of December then I would say this El Nino ship and the effect it’ll have on our winter has sailed. At that point I would think we can put away the snow blowers… unless we get some freak snowstorm that’ll probably melt away the next day with and up an down El Nino
In Maine, we used to consider the 1st of December as the start of winter. It was called meteorological or climatological winter vs. astronomical winter. But lately, it would seem the 21st is now more appropriate.
Jan 21st in my area, at least the past several years have been that.
43 here in south PA at the Mason Dixon line,. supposed to hit 65 today…in December smh
It’s not unusual it still is technically autumn. The winter of 2010-11 we had all that snow. It hit 70 degrees two or three times before winter set in
I remember that December…seemed that we had snow every day be it light flurries to a 3-4″ snow…lasted well into January ..
Yes. Philadelphia and Baltimore had a ton of snow that year.
It was one storm after another. Like Henry mentioned the atmosphere has somewhat of a memory of where it’s going to snow.
I mean the weather is actually doing what the models are saying it’s going to do…when the SOI values go up the temp moderate and we get rain, just like the models say and then when the SOI values go back to El Niño status we get cold again…just like the models say….at this point I think it’s just a wait and see if this El Niño actually has a…Read More
33 down here in south PA at the mason Dixon line