It’s a very unusual situation developing in the Plains as a small but intense storm develops today through tonight. I am using the social media meteorological phase “Landcane” to explain this little but powerful storm.

The airmass across the Plains is warm and humid and that airmass will feed into the storm helping to produce a concentrated area of very intense rainfall and bands of thunderstorms.

Using the HRRR model as a guide to helping to pinpoint the area of heaviest rains, it appears that parts of Iowa and Nebraska will see over 6 inches of rain that could lead to dangerous flooding given the already soggy conditions. For example, Sioux, City, IA is already 163% of normal rainfall for the month of June. Any additional rain, especially what is shown on the model will cause extensive flooding. Flash flood watches are already out for much of Iowa into Nebraska.

Along with the rainfall, strong winds will occur with with gusts 30 mph to 50 mph behind the storm.

Thunderstorms, developing in bands, will produce sudden intense rainfall and strong winds across parts of Iowa, northern Missouri into Illinois. Some of the storms will be severe.

The storm peak in intensity Thursday morning then weaken some during the day as is loop around and heads southeast. Eventually the storm will bring rain to a wide area from the Ohio valley, Great Lakes to the Northeast Friday into the Weekend.

The tropical system has moved onto the Texas coast near Corpus Christi, TX this afternoon. The heaviest rains have so far been along the upper Texas coast near Houston, but overtime, we will see heavy rains moving inland across most of the central and northern Texas coast.

The system will move into south-central Texas and will become almost stationary for a few days. Yesterday it appeared the system would only produce a few inches of rain but now it appears the system becomes stuck which means several rounds of heavy rains and thunderstorms across parts of San Antonio to Houston and as far north as Dallas.

San Antonio, Austin and the Hill Country will see several inches of rain and some places could see a foot of rain. This means some serious flooding is possible over the next couple of days.

Remember, flash flooding happens fast. It only takes 6 inches of fast moving water to push a car down stream. Driving across flooding roadways could be dangerous in this situation.

Key Points in the Video:

1. Severe storms for Kansas today, the Northeast Wednesday, North Dakota Thursday.
2. Bud to bring rains to the parts of the Southwest. Could help the fire situation.
3. Tropical system to bring heavy rains to Texas.

It’s been an active pattern with thunderstorms in the Plains into the Ohio Valley over the weekend and that pattern is not going to change very much today. Another round of severe storms will explode across the Plains while a complex of storms could bring heavy rains and possible flash flooding to parts of the Ohio Valley.

In the Plains, a cold front moving east will be the trigger for severe storms to develop late today. Probably not a day for tornadoes, but more storms with locally damaging winds and large hail. The forecast map above shows the zone from Minnesota to eastern Kansas. I expect the storms to develop after 6:00 pm CDT and last into the first half of tonight. We may see a convective cluster of storms develop overnight across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma.

In the Ohio Valley, the storms that develop later today will be mainly heavy rain makers. Some of the models are showing rainfall over 1-2 inches in a 3 hour period which could lead to locally flash flooding or street flooding given the soggy weather. In addition to the heavy rains, expect gusty winds and perhaps some hail with the storms.

The storm in the East and produced the heavy rains and flooding over the weekend will finally head out to sea.