Severe storms will develop across Montana today then redevelop across Minnesota Wednesday. The worse of the storms will occur across eastern Montana this afternoon into the evening. The storms will produce damaging winds, large hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.

Latest model guidance shows the supercells may develop this afternoon across eastern Montana which means the potential for large hail and tornadoes.

Wednesday, the storms will develop along the cold front that will be moving across the Northern Plains.  The storms that hit Minnesota will produce damaging winds, few tornadoes and hail. It’s possible the storms form into a nocturnal cluster of storms that continue through Wisconsin and head into northern Illinois by Thursday morning.

Tornado parameters are high across northern Minnesota Wednesday and given it’s tornado season in Minnesota, tornadoes are possible.

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Simulated Radar for this Afternoon and Evening

A cold front extending from the Upper Midwest into the High Plains this morning will be the focal point for severe thunderstorms today. The primary impacts with the storm will be wind damage. A few tornadoes may occur but this is mainly a wind damage event due to the high heat the storms are moving into.

The main area of severe weather will extend from southern Minnesota through Iowa into eastern Nebraska. That area will probably see a bowing line segment of storms with wind gusts over 50 mph. This could lead into another complex of storms in the Plains overnight that will produce heavy rains and gusty winds. It seems to be the pattern out there with afternoon storms forming into nocturnal thunderstorm complexes.

Cities Impacted by the storms today are:

Omaha, NE

Lincoln, NE

Des Moines, IA

Council Bluffs, IA

Ames, IA..

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The storm that has been in the Midwest is moving through the eastern Great Lakes and is now adding spin into the atmosphere across the Appalachians. As skies clear this afternoon and heating occurs, dew points will rise into the 60s and low 70s setting the stage for numerous thunderstorms to develop. Shear profiles show the winds rotating with height which means storms may form into supercells and may even produce a few tornadoes. Large hail and damaging winds may also occur.

Below, the simulated radar is painting an ugly picture showing numerous supercell storms across central Pennsylvania into western Maryland. The HRRR rotation tracks below show storms that may have rotation. That doesn’t mean the rotation produces tornadoes, the rotation can support large hail as well. In any case, watch for warnings being issued for your area.

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Simulated Radar for this Evening

Rotation Tracks for this Evening

The number of tornadoes this year is way down and is the lowest since 2002. It is possible that once the adjusted reports are completed that the number of tornadoes is the lowest since 1988.  May which is typically an active month for tornadoes averaging 295, had only 96 tornado reports. April was the most active month for tornadoes with 146, most of which came with one storms system early in the month.

Now this is all good news because along with the number of tornadoes that are down, the number of tornado deaths is down with only 3 reports so far this year.

If this tread continues, 2018 could have the lowest number of tornadoes on record, but keep in mind, we still have tropical season and the second severe weather season in the fall to go yet.

The main question is why no tornadoes. One thing that stands out is the PNA (Pacific/North American) pattern. A negative PNA pattern was in place for most of the spring which lead to warm and dry weather pattern across the eastern have of the country and a lack of the jet stream taking major dips into the Plains and East. During a positive PNA, greater trend toward storminess in the eastern half of the country and a greater chance for rich Gulf of Mexico moisture to be drawn north to help fuel the thunderstorms. We also saw blocking going which lead to cooler weather for the Northeast. So while I am being very simplistic in my answer, the basic answer is, the pattern for tornadoes has not been there this spring.

As a side note, 2002-2003 was a snowy winter for the many parts of the country, especially the Northeast.

Below are images from the SPC site showing the tornado trends so far this year.