Surface Map for Thursday Evening

I might be going out on a limb here, but the pattern will lead to an unusual vortex developing over the Great Lakes by this weekend. The trough will take on a negative tilt and strong jet streak will come down from the northwest which will add lift for thunderstorm development. The configuration looks more like an Northwesterly Flow Severe Weather Outbreak starting Thursday and last into Friday.

While severe storms will occur across the Plains Wednesday, the nasty storms will come late Thursday into Thursday night in the areas shown on the map above. The storms that develop should move southeast and redevelop across the mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley Friday. It’s not out of the question that a third day of severe weather occurs across eastern Ohio into eastern Kentucky Saturday.

A jet like this diving southeast will create a strong shear profile and the potential not only for damaging winds but also for tornadoes. I could see how this all leads to a tornado outbreak, especially Friday as shown in the purple areas on the map.

Keep in mind, this is my first look at what could be a nasty two-day event, I wanted to get the word out so that people in the Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley understand that this is not your normal summer pattern but one that looks more like spring severe weather.

I think we will see SPC folks showing a risk of severe weather for day 2 and 3.

250 mb Jet Stream. Notice the Jet Streak in the Middle Part of the Country