An upper level low will begin to dive southeast and over the next 4 days, we will severe weather around that upper level low. As mentioned yesterday, this is a little unusual to see such a vortex developing this time of the year. The implications mean severe weather given we are at the heart of summer.
Storms will erupt this afternoon and continue into tonight. The first several hours of the event is when tornadoes may occur. The rotation tracks based off the HRRR model show that areas of central South Dakota into eastern Nebraska could see tornadoes or very large hail. In addition, winds in the storms can gust well over 60 mph and cause considerable damage.
I do think that a nocturnal thunderstorm complex will develop and head southeast into Kansas and Missouri, perhaps all the way to northern Arkansas by Thursday midday.
Below is the simulated radar for this afternoon. Other blogs will cover the severe weather Thursday and Friday.