The weather pattern developing now through early February is highly favorable for winter storm potential, but not a guarantee. The subtropical jet stream is featuring more moisture and activity now, but once the MJO rockets through phase 7 into phase 8 on January 20th, the activity from the Subtropical jet stream will skyrocket. Expect more interaction with the Subtropical jet stream as a result.

The Polar Vortex is expected to continue to stretch and contract through the rest of the winter, but also progressively become stronger with each contraction. I expect cold waves to be strong and last longer than warm periods, but you’ll start to notice the warm periods lingering more in February as we begin our gradual shift to Spring, especially after February 15th. However, while this process is ongoing, the high latitude blocking will continue to feature waves of negative EPO and negative NAO phases. If you are looking for a major winter storm, then these features all must line up, which is why I say when you get one, enjoy it.

The potential for snow is moderate to high, and all types of storms, including Miller A storms, are on the table, but so are a lot of missed opportunities.

Steve D