NepaSnow
PV a weakling
finished just under 7″ in extreme Northern wayne county
Finished just under 0.07 of an inch of FZ.
Mesoscale Discussion 2275 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Areas affected…Western New York into northeast Pennsylvania
Concerning…Heavy snow
Valid 261822Z – 262215Z
SUMMARY…A favorable zone for heavy snow banding is becoming established across parts of western New York…Read More
JMA seasonal with a blockbuster +PNA/-NAO for the second half of January. This is a snowy pattern for the east and SE.
Yes but things are always 10-15 days and then seem to reverse as we get closer.
8 Degrees in Northern Wayne county of PA above Honesdale this morning!
The latest tropical forcing continues to feature the waning influence of La Niña. The subsurface under NINO 3.4 to NINO 1+2 still features well below normal sea temperatures at 50 to 100 meters deep, but this pocket of water is steadily moderating. The SOI monthly values are now negative while the daily values waver. Strong convection is…Read More
Very interesting…I had no idea such a thing as Miller A and B existed!
Oh yeah. There had to be because I went to school with Miller C the third generation of the Millers.
When was the last time we had a winter Miller A storm? Seems like its been a coons age. Probably longer.
indices are all over the place because they cannot firgure it out with the SOI drop.
6z euro for friday event
Smarter people than me have said the off hour runs of any model is garbage.
Well, hello West-based -NAO
8 Degrees this morning in Northern NEPA, wayne county
Any model output 5 days or more cannot grasp all that is going on in the atmosphere
Hello Blocking!
Looks like a weak Polar vortex with a chance for Major disruption possible will keep a nice thermal gradient in Mid/Northern Mid Atlantic for some stormy weather…
“With the constant transport of warm air from the mid-latitudes of the troposphere to the high latitudes of the stratosphere via the EP-Flux, I don’t see any end to the stretching o…Read More
Nice -NAO setting up around Christmas time, Dec 26-29 storm signal is showing up!
The ECMWF has started to play catch-up on its weeklies. As always it is last to the game when seeing cold coming.
Sure, opens the door for more downs then ups but take it with a grain of salt.
“The positive TNH weather pattern that I have been expecting for most of this winter will take hold even more over the next 15 days as we head towards the end of 2025. The positive TNH weather pattern typically features the coldest arctic air in the Northern Plains and Great Lakes, while a tight thermal gradient begins to develop over the…Read More
Negative NAO is a teleconnection that usually does not play a major part until the last third of the winter if you are looking for eastern cold and snow. Others like -WP0, -AO, and +PNA are more important to keep the cold coming. Snow amounts for any one storm are unpredictable.
more interested in the thermal gradient and blocking to slow some shortwaves down and have some over running events.
Anything would be better than nothing.
EPAWA weather weeklies on YouTube for the rest of the month and January
mind you this is for Pa mostly
Quite the warm-up on the 18Z GFS
Nice!!! The influence of the negative QBO is clearly evident, shaping the development of stratospheric warming and the buildup of ozone over North America, the northern Pacific, and eastern Asia. Ozone values are moving to above normal levels around the Hudson Bay, which suggests below normal 500 MB heights in eastern Canada, while further…Read More
The latest long-range MJO forecast through early January suggests that the MJO will either remain very weak in a neutral state or in a weak phase 8. These influences from the MJO would suggest the Polar jet stream will be the dominant influence on the weather pattern, and the subtropical jet stream will either support cold solutions over the…Read More
