y2trust
The long-range winter weather forecast from various private weather forecast services and bloggers has been been notoriously wrong for the last few years. Now, with winter just ahead, no one really seems to be predicting anything more than a ‘deja vu all over again’ winter in the North East. My snow-blower is just wishful thinking and taking…Read More
I did get to use my boat until late October this year… Could have kept it in until mid November …and probably can put it on the mooring in….MARCH 2025!!! Who needs Florida??
32 moderate snow, ground is covered NE Nassau County, Long Island…cool!
33 now with light snow
39 with snow showers here in NE Nassau Co., LI. – NYC west of me shows snow showers at Rockefeller Center tree lighting ;-]
Surprising 21 degrees this AM in NE Nassau County, Long Island….. Perhaps the predicted ‘rain’ showers will be .. snow showers here??
You can blame AI, ‘climate change’, governments tinkering with the atmosphere, and so on… I still think you Do need a real weatherman like Henry to ..’know which way the wind blows’ especially now. (Apologies to Bob Dylan/Subterranean Homesick Blues)
Oops-actually Nassau County Western Long Island-so good chance NYC also has wet snow
12:46 AM… 33 with wet snow falling in my North Shore area of Eastern Long Island; no accumulation, but looks cool….and we need the precipitation… I’ll take it!
Another dry, mild weekend on Long Island; Severe clear today, No rain (or….. SNOW) in sight; Moderate drought, around 9 inches below average precipitation here.
Generally mild and mellow above normal temperatures next ten days in Lake Placid, NY, where I use to hike the high peaks of the Adirondacks August through November in the 70’s and 80’s, with snow often early September. Maybe the tropics will have a November surprise that gives the east some precipitation and pushes the jet into a trough favoring…Read More
Brush fire in Prospect Park, Brooklyn NYC; the Pine Barrons on Long Island are ripe for a repeat of the 1995 devastating fires; Any additional insight how/why its been so dry in the North East and other areas of eastern US since around September?
Fires burning in NJ and on Eversink Mountain near Reading PA; wind has died down and rain???? tomorrow should help.
Soooo crazy warm here again on Long Island…..Maybe its “MDS”….Model Derangement Syndrome….Thinking of putting my boat back in the water and do some fishing and swimming 🙂
Forecast in my local Long Island, New York, newspaper:
” Winter forecast: Warmer than normal conditions expected but significant storms could still affect Long Island. Not good for snow lovers “.
The forecast stated that although it SHOULD be colder and snowier than the last several years based on the data, “climate change and global…Read More
So basically 3 weeks of winter that’s about it. The test above average temps and no snow ?
Yeah is snow lovers are over it. The smart ones realize they need to travel to enjoy snow.
Predicting that a Hurricane will again hit Florida a week or so ago was “click bait”,,, ? Attention seeking? I guess ” .. the answer my friend WAS blowing in the wind” ! We just missed it…” (apologies to Mr. Bob Dylan).
That was a major hurricane hitting the flood zones which was click bait.
Two inches or more on the ground, the entire ground, including roads-woke up to a strange sound.. shoveling? 32 snow/rain here now…expect deep freeze tonight… more snow Friday; cool!
As I suggested early this year and last year, the indices used to produce prediction ensembles may no longer be reliable due to, climate change. Still hoping for snow here on Long Island NY in spite of the forecast.
Question for Y2trust. If you can build a model that predicts CC, then why can’t you apply it to synoptic modelling so the prediction ensembles can become “reliable” again?
NOW 33 degrees with snow, ground is becoming covered, here in my very localized NE Nassau County Long Island micro-climate; I suspect areas just East, West and especially South of my immediate location on Long Island, which are usually a bit warmer, may be all rain…not giving up hope for a surprise…
So… I don’t want to be a bummer but …. it’s Deja vu all over again.. and again.. and again…..
Thinking of bailing on this ‘snow-storm’ that may not really be bearing down on Long Island; may be heading for Boynton Beach, Florida to ride it out….lol
FINALLY, LET IT SNOW !!!… while basking in its glow, we can calmly discuss how the old weather indices may need to be refined with the understanding that climate is a dynamic complex system that is always changing in big and little ways and we can’t do much about it but accept and understand how it may impact us.
Well said!!!
