8:00 pm EDT – Two areas to be concerned with over the next hour. Upstate New York where a bowing line of storms is produce strong winds and wind damage and across western PA where where at least one supercell storm is active with tornado warnings.
Other storms are developing across New York and may become severe over the next area. The threats remain large hail, damaging winds and perhaps tornado.
11:00 am EDT – I updated the map to add a potential tornado area across eastern New York. Latest HRRR shows the bulk of the severe weather will occur across that area. The significant tornado parameters are high across the area as well. Clouds are breaking to allow some sunshine and upper 60s dew points are surging up the Hudson Valley.
Original Discussion at 7:00 am edt…..
I made a few changes to the severe weather outlook for today. I still think if there is a tornado threat it will be across parts of central New York where the shear will be the greatest, otherwise, most areas will see a line of storms moving through with strong winds and hail. Some of the limiting factors for today are the clouds and the lower dew points. The cloud cover associated with the warm front need to move out to allow heating to occur. The models do indicate temperatures ahead of the cold front will rise into the lower 80s. Dew points are currently in the lows 60s but should rise a bit higher into the mid and upper 60s.
If you examine the map, the best inflow of high dew point air will be along the front from southern Pennsylvania back into Kentucky so given that we should see a strong line of storms there. The dynamics are better across central New York so if the clouds break and the dew points rise, we may see supercells with damaging winds, large hail and perhaps a tornado.
Storms are expected to develop after 4:00 pm EDT this afternoon and last into early tonight.