duckpinmaster
To show you how concrete and asphalt can affect temperature on a cold winter’s night. Hagerstown airport is posting 20 degrees at midnight while a few miles away at Greg Keefer’s official weather station he is posting 10 degrees.
00z GFS has shifted north to join the EURO and CMC. Someone in the Mid-Atlantic or maybe a lot of people are going to get 20+ with these sort of high ratios.
NO use to talk about accumulations until about Thursday when more models agree on a solution. A distance of 50 miles could mean 6 more inches of snow. There will be disappointments as always.
The higher totals will shift north the next 2 days is my opinion.
12Z gfs BACKS DOWN ON ANY SNOW NORTH OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.
What else is new?
However, the CMC is staying the course at 12z.
I hope this GFS run is an outliar!
Probably the 1 time this year it will right.
I am looking for some easy money this morning. I am betting that what the GFS is depicting on its 06z run has shifted much further north on its 12z run closer to what the CMC is depicting at 12z. Any takers?
That’s one thing I don’t bet on…lol!!! way too unpredictable. What the models show and what the storm does when it arrives can be so different. The storm could hit a dry slot and poof! there goes the snow!
My gut telling me the same…what could have been snow in mid Tennessee may be just catastrophic ice!
High lights of 00z runs are GFS moves north and it is bombs away for the MID-Atlantic and up the coast into New England with high snow ratios due to extremely low temperatures. Dare I say we could be looking at feet instead of inches? I don’t want to jinx it.
JB is saying that the models are dragging their heels on the southern branch energy trying to keep it separate from phasing with the northern branch. He still thinks it will which will have significant effect up the coast. CMC is almost there if not there already.
12z CMC looking good for Mid-Atlantic snowstorm. GFS in a couple of days will adjust north or be left out in the cold like it usually is.
Unusual for NOAA to ring the warning bell about 5 days from a possible winter storm in our area unless the trend was our friend. i also see their projected highs for Hagerstown are 15-20 next weekend. A major winter storm is brewing for the Mid-Atlantic with cold air in place. It’s about time!
CMC 00z already on top of possible phasing for a big east coast storm in the 5-7 day outlook. Steady as she goes. Maybe this time everyone gets to share in a little white gold. By about Wednesday or Thursday the CMC’s forecast should be about nailed. Forget the GFS and its foolishness.
Time to total up this latest “storm” totals for Hagerstown so roll those drums please. 0.2 of an inch brings us to 2.5 inches for this season. I am so glad I had my snowblower serviced back in November.
Hagerstown 0.2 of an inch and radar trajectory showing we could have a little more. 2.5 inches for the season. Some of that was in November. CMC was correct and GFS was incorrect on westward extension of the snow.
06z GFS again illustrating unsubstantial snow maps for the next 7 days.
Think that’s bad the euro is even less impressed. but really who knows.
By the middle of next week in the Mid-Atlantic region. the current lows will be the daytime highs. It would be ashamed to waste all that cold and have no snow.
I just looked at the U.S. drought monitor. Most of the east coast, southeast and into the southern plains are in anywhere from abnormally dry to severe drought stages. This has been going on for a couple years now. It doesnt want to rain or snow!
It is interesting, Henry, that in your morning write up you describe a possible clipper snow this coming weekend as being a “late season snow”.
Did I really….just a clipper snow.
They made a movie one time to describe the 6 hour runs of the GFS. It was called “Gone with the wind”.
CMC 12z on board for Sunday.
Don’t pay any attention to the 18z GFS. itis full of crap.
reasons?
If you are referring to my comment, 18zS just like the 06zs are initiated without a full load, about 25% missing, of new data. WeatherBell forum several years ago.
CMC, unfortunately is showing nothing for the MID-Atlantic for the next 7 days. Usually correct within 5 days of an event.
I don’t put much faith in the cmc unless it’s close to the euro, but whatever climate change crap they have put in the algorithm has messed up all weather models…
Hate to throw a wet blanket on this, particularly since Hagerstown has had only 2 inches so far this winter, but NOAA has posted for Hagerstown for Thursday through Sunday, Sunny all four days with highs 35-40.
Give it a day or so, they think it’s sunny here on the coast too for Thursday and Friday.
