Severe

Severe Weather for TWO Days Including Tornadoes!

model4

While today will be a major severe weather day across the South and I think the depiction above from the SPC boys is accurate I do have more concerns for Sunday’s severe weather outbreak.

First, let me finish with today. I does concern me that the helicity tracks for the event today are not all the impressive. I have seen this before where the atmosphere is way to sheared and moist and too many storms develop causing issues for supercells too develop. That wouldn’t be a bad thing if that happened today since will mean less of a chance for destructive tornadoes. It’s something we will have to watch and see how the event unfolds this afternoon as to whether there is too many storms the compete with each other.

severe Sunday I think SPC has the area incorrect. I think with the jet splitting, we will see two areas of severe storms and potential tornadoes. One area will be across eastern Ohio, western and central PA into West Virginia and western Maryland, and the other across the Southeast with the remains of the squall line. I think showing the main thrust of potential severe weather in the middle of the splitting jet is not correct and most likely they will redo the area later tonight.

If you look at the helicity tracks below for both events, notice how the tracks become more pronounced Sunday evening across the Northeast. It maybe a case where the tracks are supporting more hail then tornadoes but in any case they are more pronounced.

Here Comes the Storms Again!

Severe weather will once again develop across areas from New York to Virginia today. These are the sames areas hit last week by severe weather and bad flooding.

The storms have already been active this morning, but this afternoon as as a storm tracks through the Great Lakes and a strong jet stream aloft comes over the area, storms will develop.

The storms that do develop this afternoon and evening will produce high winds and heavy rains. Locally, up to 3 inches of rain may occur causing street and stream flooding. Given the soggy conditions in these areas, flooding will occur fairly quickly.

Winds within the storms may gust to 60 mph causing trees to come down and perhaps even some power outages.

Simulated Radar for Today Showing the Where Storms May Hit.

Links:

Daily Video: Flooding Rains End, Severe Weather Starts

Severe Storms Prowl the I-95 Corridor

A cold front will move through the Northeast Friday. That front will produce a broken band of severe thunderstorms that will move through the I-95 corridor cities late in the day.

While this is not a big event for severe weather, the storms will only aggravate the soggy conditions but will also produce local wind damage.

One of the concerns that I have is that any wind gusts with thunderstorms will topple trees because the root systems are so soggy from the rains the trees just can’t hold their ground. So even a 40 mph will gust can potential knock down a tree.

Storms will develop after 3pm and should move off the coast by 10pm Friday night. Expect a nice weekend before the rains return next week.

Links:

Simulated Radar Friday Late day