Simulated Radar for this Evening

Yesterday was a nasty day across Iowa with over 30 tornadoes, some big causing considerable damage. Today could be worse as the tornado threat is heading in higher populated areas of the southern Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley.

A vigorous jet stream will punch southeast into the area this afternoon and evening causing intense upward motion and huge supercell thunderstorms. Given the shear, storms will quickly rotate and produce tornadoes, some large and dangerous, as well large hail and winds gusts over 60 mph.

Areas of Kentucky, Tennessee into northern Mississippi and northern Alabama will be in the area for tornadoes and damaging thunderstorms.

This is a very unusual event for this time of the year so people need to heed the warnings that will be issued for the storms this afternoon.

Links:

SPC Severe Weather Maps

Rotation Tracks

An upper level low will begin to dive southeast and over the next 4 days, we will severe weather around that upper level low. As mentioned yesterday, this is a little unusual to see such a vortex developing this time of the year. The implications mean severe weather given we are at the heart of summer.

Rotation Tracks

Storms will erupt this afternoon and continue into tonight. The first several hours of the event is when tornadoes may occur.  The rotation tracks based off the HRRR model show that areas of central South Dakota into eastern Nebraska could see tornadoes or very large hail. In addition, winds in the storms can gust well over 60 mph and cause considerable damage.

I do think that a nocturnal thunderstorm complex will develop and head southeast into Kansas and Missouri, perhaps all the way to northern Arkansas by Thursday midday.

Below is the simulated radar for this afternoon. Other blogs will cover the severe weather Thursday and Friday.

Simulated Radar for This Evening

Surface Map for Tuesday Evening

A cold front will move through the eastern part of the country, sparking heavy thunderstorms across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. The bulk of the storms will be right along the I-95 corridor.

The storms, as shown on the simulated radar below will be ongoing from the morning. The storms are expected to intensify coming East into the hot and humid airmass that is in-place.

The storms will produce mainly high winds, with gusts over 40 mph. Some storms may produce wind gusts up to 60 mph, but most storms should have winds well under that. This is not a widespread severe weather outbreak, but the typically summertime line of storms that occur when a cold front blasts into hot and humid weather.

Related:

Surface Map

Radar

Satellite

Simulated Radar for Tuesday Evening

A cold front extending from the Upper Midwest into the High Plains this morning will be the focal point for severe thunderstorms today. The primary impacts with the storm will be wind damage. A few tornadoes may occur but this is mainly a wind damage event due to the high heat the storms are moving into.

The main area of severe weather will extend from southern Minnesota through Iowa into eastern Nebraska. That area will probably see a bowing line segment of storms with wind gusts over 50 mph. This could lead into another complex of storms in the Plains overnight that will produce heavy rains and gusty winds. It seems to be the pattern out there with afternoon storms forming into nocturnal thunderstorm complexes.

Cities Impacted by the storms today are:

Omaha, NE

Lincoln, NE

Des Moines, IA

Council Bluffs, IA

Ames, IA..

Related Links

Radar

Satellite

Severe Weather Maps

Upper Air Maps