As I mentioned the other day, the storms are going to be going around the rim of the heatwave from the Plains to the Northeast. This afternoon into tonight, we will see a complex of storms moving through Ontario and Quebec, impacting Montreal and Quebec City, that same complex of storms will drop into the Northeast impact Vermont, New Hampshire, parts of Maine and upstate New York. It’s not out of the question the storms make it all the way to Boston tonight. These are the types of storms that produce wind damage due to the sudden downdrafts that can exceed 60 mph or 95 kph. It’s really not uncommon during heatwaves to see these complex of storms rotating around the heat dome. In some cases, the storms can produce widespread wind damage which is certainly possible.

Simulated Radar for this Evening

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Posted Thursday June 28, 2018

Complex of thunderstorms typically play around the rim of the heat domes and we may see a complex of storms coming through Ontario, Quebec into the Northeast Saturday. That complex of storms could produce widespread wind damage as it comes Southeast out of Canada. Places like Montreal, Quebec, Upstate New York and Vermont could see the storms. It is also possible that the complex of storms turn southeast and head all the way to New England by the end of the day.

These types of storms have happened before during the start of major heatwaves. It’s complex to say the least on how it occurs but it has to do with the heat surging north prior to the ridge building in. In addition, the severe weather today will be supported by a jet streak that will continue to move across Canada then drop down through the Northeast on Saturday.

Winds may gust well over 50 mph or 80 kph and if the situation gets extreme, a derecho could form. Not sure that will happen right now, but sometimes we see that during extreme heat.

My Prediction

An active day for severe weather is coming up for the Northern Plains as waves of storms rotate around the developing heat dome. The storms will come in waves and will produce damaging wind gusts, large hail and even a few tornadoes. The area of western North Dakota into eastern Montana will be the focal point for the main impacts of the storms.

The storms will probably form into an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) overnight that will feed on the heat coming up from the Plains. That MCS will move through Minnesota into Wisconsin with strong winds and heavy rains.

The same pattern will occur across the Upper Midwest Friday into Saturday as another round of heavy storms and nocturnal storms develop.

Check out the rotation streaks map below. That shows where supercell thunderstorms may develop and produce strong rotation, perhaps even a tornado.

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Rotation Streaks from the HRRR Model

Simulated Radar for this Evening

This one I found interesting because you don’t see the models trying to stir-up a small but intense little storm this time of the year, but yet, some of the operational models including the GFS are showing just that by Thursday morning. A small intense low pressure system with gusty winds, thunderstorms and heavy rain will form out of the severe weather that develops today. Once develop, so may say in resembles a “Landcane” which has become over of those social media weather terms that show up every now and then for a small intense storm.

In any case, severe weather explodes across the High Plains this afternoon and last into tonight . The storms will produce damaging hail, high winds and probably a few tornadoes. Certainly Storm Chaser weather for the High Plains.

The storms will form into an rather large area of thunderstorms overnight into Wednesday which be the seeding for low pressure to develop over Nebraska. That low pressure will deepen as the jet dips in and pulls into under the vortex. So by Thursday morning we should see a fairly intense little storm over the Plains.

The impacts will be gusty winds, heavy rains and thunderstorms wrapping around the storm. Winds may gust over 50 mph across parts of Nebraska, northern Kansas and perhaps Iowa.

A cold front will move across the Northeast today and will settle south into the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday and Wednesday. That front will put an end to the heat across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states but not for the Carolina’s where the heat will continue.

Severe storms will run out head of the front this afternoon and tonight and while this will not be a widespread severe weather event, some areas will see damaging wind gusts and hail. I don’t think this is a tornado situation because the shear is just not there for supercell storms. Typically when you break a heatwave, the storms produce strong wind gusts.

The simulated radars area showing several waves of storms from Ontario to New England. So it’s not out of the question that some areas have several rounds of storms through tonight.