Overall, I am not looking for major changes in the pattern. The weak blocking across the Northeast will give up some allowing surges of heat into the Northeast. But the heat surges will come with a cost. Old boundaries will be stubborn to move allowing for the corridor of heavy rains to remain from the Midwest into the Mid-Atlantic. I am not saying we will see daily barrages of heavy rains, but when it does rain, some areas will see inches of rain. In some cases, the rains will come from all thunderstorm complexes that form in the Plains and move under the jet and along the old fronts.

I don’t expect any prolonged heat into the East and Northeast but surges of heat. We may see a few days with temps up in the 90s, but I think that will be the exception and not the rule.

In early July, there are some indications that the jet buckles allowing a coastal storm to develop off the Mid-Atlantic. This may occur close to 4th of July and could mess-up beach time prior to the 4th. Worse case would be back door cold fronts and chilly, drizzle weather behind a coastal storm.

Severe weather will remain in the Plains during this time, especially from Montana to Minnesota. It’s not out of the question that we see a few rounds of tornadoes as a strong jet will come into across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Plains.

The West to me is tricky. While dry and hit weather should remain across the California Valleys into the interior West, I can see thunderstorms developing over the mountains from about Mid-Month on.

The Southwest will see at least one perhaps two Pacific tropical systems that will ignite the monsoonal flow. While not a true monsoonal flow, there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms that will break the heat and bring the potential for flash flooding and dust storms.

Southwest Gulf is where I am watching right now for development the next week or so. It would appear that most of the tropical problems will be suppressed south for now but close in development is something that remains on the table as the ridge builds in around Mid-June. The South is into the summer pattern with warm and humid weather and daily thunderstorms.

This mad mad video comes out of Pune India showing a tornado. Notice how the tornado becomes a rope, twisting around as it goes up to the clouds.

The GFS model has finally backed off the hurricane in the Gulf but that does not mean we let our guard down for the Southwest Gulf by this weekend. I think all a long the GFS model has been showing that something could develop but the intensity and location was off. Even if you studied the runs of the ECMWF model, it showed a very weak low developing in the Southwest Gulf which all makes sense given what we are seeing in the pattern.

Other wise, the Atlantic is has too much shear for for development the next 5 days.

In the Pacific, Hurricane Bud is probably hitting peak intensity  and will continue to move north toward Baja, making landfall this weekend. Bud will break the heat across parts of the Southwest next week by setting up a monsoonal flow with numerous showers and thunderstorms. The threat across parts of Arizona and New Mexico will become flash flooding next week as the remains of Bud come up.

It’s been an active pattern with thunderstorms in the Plains into the Ohio Valley over the weekend and that pattern is not going to change very much today. Another round of severe storms will explode across the Plains while a complex of storms could bring heavy rains and possible flash flooding to parts of the Ohio Valley.

In the Plains, a cold front moving east will be the trigger for severe storms to develop late today. Probably not a day for tornadoes, but more storms with locally damaging winds and large hail. The forecast map above shows the zone from Minnesota to eastern Kansas. I expect the storms to develop after 6:00 pm CDT and last into the first half of tonight. We may see a convective cluster of storms develop overnight across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma.

In the Ohio Valley, the storms that develop later today will be mainly heavy rain makers. Some of the models are showing rainfall over 1-2 inches in a 3 hour period which could lead to locally flash flooding or street flooding given the soggy weather. In addition to the heavy rains, expect gusty winds and perhaps some hail with the storms.

The storm in the East and produced the heavy rains and flooding over the weekend will finally head out to sea.