The GFS model has finally backed off the hurricane in the Gulf but that does not mean we let our guard down for the Southwest Gulf by this weekend. I think all a long the GFS model has been showing that something could develop but the intensity and location was off. Even if you studied the runs of the ECMWF model, it showed a very weak low developing in the Southwest Gulf which all makes sense given what we are seeing in the pattern.

Other wise, the Atlantic is has too much shear for for development the next 5 days.



In the Pacific, Hurricane Bud is probably hitting peak intensity  and will continue to move north toward Baja, making landfall this weekend. Bud will break the heat across parts of the Southwest next week by setting up a monsoonal flow with numerous showers and thunderstorms. The threat across parts of Arizona and New Mexico will become flash flooding next week as the remains of Bud come up.