The system we have been tracking this week is now in the Gulf of Mexico. It looked better organized this morning but has seemed to become little bit disorganized this afternoon. The ECMWF model tried to spin up a storm out on the run last night but backed off that idea on 12z run this morning. The GFS shows nothing at all nor do any of the other models.

My guess is we have a weak low that tries to form but just does not make it due to the movement toward the Texas coast. If the system stalls for a few days which could happen, then I think it has a chance to develop. In any case, the major impacts of a system like this is heavy rains for the Texas coast.

Rainfall for Texas will be in the 1-5 inch category. Some flooding may occur buy given the dryness recently, they might be able to handle that much rain.

I see the National Hurricane Center updated the chances for development by showing a 10% chance of development for an area in the Southern Caribbean. We all have been scratching our heads at the GFS for showing a hurricane run after run the past week or so and now we have an area of disturbed weather. I feel sometimes we live and die by the ECMWF but since the Weather Service made changes to the GFS tropical parameters it seems the model has been doing better. Ok, you can argue that, but if you use the model for potential development, it seems to show that.

So what’s next. Both models are now showing a weak low in the Southwest Gulf late in the weekend and early next week. The pattern would suggests that some tropical system should show up there but it does not suggest yet that a hurricane would develop. That is something we have to watch and see what happens over the next couple of days. For now, lets keep an eye on things and folks along the Texas coast should watch for an increase in showers and thunderstorms this weekend.

The GFS model has finally backed off the hurricane in the Gulf but that does not mean we let our guard down for the Southwest Gulf by this weekend. I think all a long the GFS model has been showing that something could develop but the intensity and location was off. Even if you studied the runs of the ECMWF model, it showed a very weak low developing in the Southwest Gulf which all makes sense given what we are seeing in the pattern.

Other wise, the Atlantic is has too much shear for for development the next 5 days.

In the Pacific, Hurricane Bud is probably hitting peak intensity  and will continue to move north toward Baja, making landfall this weekend. Bud will break the heat across parts of the Southwest next week by setting up a monsoonal flow with numerous showers and thunderstorms. The threat across parts of Arizona and New Mexico will become flash flooding next week as the remains of Bud come up.