GFS May Have Been Right, SW Gulf Right Idea!

I see the National Hurricane Center updated the chances for development by showing a 10% chance of development for an area in the Southern Caribbean. We all have been scratching our heads at the GFS for showing a hurricane run after run the past week or so and now we have an area of disturbed weather. I feel sometimes we live and die by the ECMWF but since the Weather Service made changes to the GFS tropical parameters it seems the model has been doing better. Ok, you can argue that, but if you use the model for potential development, it seems to show that.

So what’s next. Both models are now showing a weak low in the Southwest Gulf late in the weekend and early next week. The pattern would suggests that some tropical system should show up there but it does not suggest yet that a hurricane would develop. That is something we have to watch and see what happens over the next couple of days. For now, lets keep an eye on things and folks along the Texas coast should watch for an increase in showers and thunderstorms this weekend.

Advertisements

Posted by

Expert Meteorologist with over 30 years of weather forecasting and blogging.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.