There’s been a lot of talk of potential development along the Southeast coast over the next week or so. While the pattern is OK for development, the operations models seem wishy washy over the who things. The GFS had something there may runs back as did the ECMWF.

The way I see it. The area off North Carolina may see a storm develop, not a tropical storm, but just a storm that comes out of a system coming off the U.S. coast. That storm if ti does develop heads northeast out to sea.

After, we are left with an old front hanging up along the Southeast coast. There is a fairly decent high bridging over the front which will help to add spin thus the potential is there for a small low to develop late this week or the weekend. If it does, the track would take it into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Right now I am not sure of intensity or anything like that, not even sure if anything develops. It’s something to watch and see what happens for now.

My Best Guess on Development

The tropical system has moved onto the Texas coast near Corpus Christi, TX this afternoon. The heaviest rains have so far been along the upper Texas coast near Houston, but overtime, we will see heavy rains moving inland across most of the central and northern Texas coast.

The system will move into south-central Texas and will become almost stationary for a few days. Yesterday it appeared the system would only produce a few inches of rain but now it appears the system becomes stuck which means several rounds of heavy rains and thunderstorms across parts of San Antonio to Houston and as far north as Dallas.

San Antonio, Austin and the Hill Country will see several inches of rain and some places could see a foot of rain. This means some serious flooding is possible over the next couple of days.

Remember, flash flooding happens fast. It only takes 6 inches of fast moving water to push a car down stream. Driving across flooding roadways could be dangerous in this situation.

The system we have been tracking this week is now in the Gulf of Mexico. It looked better organized this morning but has seemed to become little bit disorganized this afternoon. The ECMWF model tried to spin up a storm out on the run last night but backed off that idea on 12z run this morning. The GFS shows nothing at all nor do any of the other models.

My guess is we have a weak low that tries to form but just does not make it due to the movement toward the Texas coast. If the system stalls for a few days which could happen, then I think it has a chance to develop. In any case, the major impacts of a system like this is heavy rains for the Texas coast.

Rainfall for Texas will be in the 1-5 inch category. Some flooding may occur buy given the dryness recently, they might be able to handle that much rain.

Key Points in the Video:

1. Severe storms for Kansas today, the Northeast Wednesday, North Dakota Thursday.
2. Bud to bring rains to the parts of the Southwest. Could help the fire situation.
3. Tropical system to bring heavy rains to Texas.