We should see Chris develop off the Southeast coast this weekend. Based off the latest Recon reports, we are getting close to a tropical storm.
Now most of the modeling has the system stalling off the Southeast coast through the weekend then heading out to sea very quickly, impacting Atlantic Canada by Thursday. If that is the case, the impacts to Atlantic Canada i.e. Newfoundland will be high winds and heavy rains as the system moves by. However, the blocking pattern is showing up and the NAO values are about to tank as we heading into mid-month. That to me opens to door for one of two things to happen.
- The tropical system escapes as the models says and heads out next week leaving behind low pressure that develops and becomes the storm (normal storm not tropical) for the East coast by the end of next week.
- The tropical system misses the connection with the trough and ends up stalling once again off the Mid-Atlantic before being driven out to sea late next week.
One thing I have learned is to never underestimate blacking patterns because they always lead to problems along the East coast despite what the models say. So I am leaving the door open to the option 2 that the tropical system, (T.S. Chris) ends up stalling again before heading out to sea. If so, what are the impacts, higher tides, rip currents along the beaches up to New England lasting into next weekend.
That’s my two cents on the develop tropical storm.