Without the blocking pattern and a positive PNA we are going to deal with a strong cold front with a wave of low pressure running up the front with a band of snow behind it. While this may seem simplistic pattern for snow, it is also a pattern that can bring heavy snows to some areas. Since we don’t have blocking, we have a positive tilt trough coming through as shown on the GFS and ECMWF models, although the trough on the ECMWF actually becomes negative heading out to sea.
GFS 500 mb Pattern
ECMWF 500 mb Pattern
I was a little surprise to see the GFS model showing snow from Texas to New England on the 12z run which I think might be overdone. We will probably see a skinny band of snow starting from the Mississippi Valley and expanding in width Northeast where it becomes major snow event for the Northeast and perhaps even the I-95 cities from Richmond north.
I am concern that if this storm comes about, the big cities end up with 4+ inches of snow. That could happen if the low stays off the coast as the trough comes in from the Northwest.
There is a lot on the table for next week and we could looking at an early season snow event for a large part of the eastern half of the country. I will be curious to see what the ECMWF has since it backed off some on the storm on last nights run.
A Look at the various models on the storm. Click on the images below.
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