Major Severe Weather Outbreak Starts Today and Culminates with Tornadoes Thursday

Wednesday Update – The severe storms will develop late this afternoon and hit north-central Texas into Oklahoma. While the rotation tracks show the potential for tornadoes, I think initially the threat will be large hail and damaging winds. The storms will weaken down overnight and reform across western Tennessee into Mississippi tomorrow afternoon. Most likely. several bands of thunderstorms will develop and will eventually form into a solid line at night. The risk for tornadoes will occur from southern Kentucky into Mississippi and Alabama. Damaging winds and hail will occur too. The storms will be driven by a strong jet stream and a strong low level jet over 60 kts.

Monday Update – The severe storms are coming and will begin in Texas Wednesday and spread northeast and east Thursday into Thursday night. This has the potential to be a major severe weather produced with strong, long-tracked tornadoes possible. The severe weather is being driven by a strong jet stream and strong low level jet that is creating strong shear that will produce and environment for supercell thunderstorms. Severe weather may occur right up against the snow area in the Ohio Valley.

At this time, it’s best to come up with a family plan of where to shelter and where to meet if a tornado were to come your way. You can see on the maps below that the SPC folks have already put risk areas out and I expect that Moderate to perhaps high risks will be issued this week.

Last Week – I wanted to put this out there to give everyone a heads-up for next week. The models are going in a direction that shows the potential for a major severe weather outbreak next Wednesday into Thursday. I know this is a week away and things may change, but there is a lot of consensus in the models in regards to a major closed off low coming into the Plains. If everything comes together, we could see a tornado outbreak starting into the southern Plains and cascading into the Tennessee Valley and South.

Notice the images below. The 500 mb chart shows a strong upper level closed low and the other chart shows a very strong low level jet. The dew points will rise into the 60s which this time of the year that is ample moisture of supercell development and tornadoes. That low level jet is very strong and worrisome.