Snowman55
Winter storm Bad Bunny is really struggling to be a big deal down here in south central PA…more on the grass than anywhere else…
South Central PA rain…I think this is a bust for south Centra l PA and most of MD. This storm has Jersey and NY written all over it. Interior parts of the Mid-Atlantic will see mostly a wind driven light rain.
The storm hasn’t even formed yet
👍🏽
Thanks Henry
Yeah. Kind of figured that. The WSW for our area doesn’t start until 3 PM. Still, this definitely has the look and feel of an I-95 and east storm. I’d take the 3” to 6” that NWS is calling for but I’m a little doubtful.
dude nobody said it would be snowing at 11am in Lancaster. take a nap and wake up around 5 or so and look outside.
It would appear that the NAM model was more accurate on the timing of the snow when it would start falling
969
Wow this NAM 18z is going nuts with this blizzard…I think the 93 blizzard was at a 976mlb this blizzard is showing at a 969mlb on the NAM
Ignore the NAM all winter the model been on the extreme end. Doesn’t mean it wont happen.
Superstorm of 93 was not only intense, but huge.. covered the whole east coast.. This storm doesn’t compare due to size.. intensity possibly..
Blizzard of 2016 Frederick Maryland…the cat and dog were not there ..lol!!!
I remember it well, Snowman. Along with many, many others. 😀 (showing my age)😀
The year we received over 100″ in State College and broke the record for a winter. I think it was 93- 94. Henry would remember. I’ll never forget that winter besides the ones in the 70’s and blizzard or 93. I had to drive back and forth to Penn State every weekday. Seemed like every morning I was driving slow because of snow.
Lol!!!!!!!
What are you expecting in Frederick with this storm?
South central PA just got updated to a Winter Storm Warning, 12+ inches likely with snow fall rates 1+ inches per hour from 5am Sunday to 2pm Monday
What’s weird is that the NAM model shows it snowing from 9am Sunday morning in PA until 11pm . Monday night…and just 8 inches of snow in south Central PA
Winter storm watch just went up for my neck of the woods. I’m in the Susquehanna Valley.
The difference in the solutions on the models are very interesting. I think the GFS is too extreme and the Euro is not extreme enough. The truth about how this is going to play out is between the two. I don’t think it will be as far east as the GFS is depicting and the snow won’t be as light as the euro is depicting
Suppose the GFS is right? It hasn’t wavered..been locked in to this.. The model has cried wolf all winter…maybe…this time it had the right solution for a week now..🤷🏻♂️
Good point…but it’s almost show time we shall see soon enough
Yah😂😂
Weather Channel taking the strong possiblity of a blizzard stance now
@weathermadness The GFS is the only model still holding onto this storm…Candian is backing off and the Euro deterministic has nothing…Will have to see of the other models change over the next few days or hours
Yah… nws seems to be siding with European models 🤔
Yeah and the 18z GFS isn’t very reliable at all so I guess we will have to wait until the 0z GFS comes out with a similar result as the other models. Really weird because all of the indicies say we shouldn’t even be talking about a storm this weekend. But we shall see, I mean if the GFS keeps this storm on the maps until Saturday night and Sunday…Read More
JB had a detailed explanation as to why the models are in disagreement this close to a possible storm and he is saying that if the GFS can’t get this right this close then the millions of dollars being spent on it by the government is being wasted and it should be shut down.
But you can’t say the GFS is a bust because nothing has happened and it is looking like it never was supposed to happen. God controls the weather and for his purposes.
Facts
Yes I would definitely say so…a lot of money being wasted
I mean I know this screenshot is the euro and I have seen the 6z and I was at weather and a beer last night trying to learn. But my question is why is the precip shield on this storm so tightly packed to the coast even with the storm hugging the coast so tight? I thought the closer the storm gets to the coast the stronger the chances are for rain…Read More
This just looks weird to me
For it to be this close to the coast
GFS always looks weird. Always seems to be high on precip totals.
Hey I mean after years Superbowl I would imagine the Patriots could use a good luck globe…oh waite did they even show up? 😂😂😂😂😂😂🤣🤣🤣🤣
I can’t I sent it off to your quarterback…lol!!!! Once he recovers he’s going to need it. Then I may bet on him…one day…lol!!!
Ending the football chat. This is a weather chat. Sorry Henry but Patriotsfan had it coming for a while. I’ll be ignoring them from here on out no @weathermadness
Bernie Rayno says we have about a 15% chance of all the ingredients coming together to make a blockbuster storm this weekend…that’s about where I’m at for now as well. Doesn’t mean it can’t happen but chances are slim… IMO
Yah and he also says New England again 😂😂😂
Blockbuster storms are rare on the east coast with maybe only 2 or 3 coming to fruition in any one winter and sometimes we go several winters without seeing one. I think it is going to snow Sunday, 70-80% chance, and Sunday night be how much is yet to be determined. IMO
Very true, I think it will be cold this weekend but as far as a blockbuster blizzard…that’s kind of suspect. Is it possible we could see some light snow and some wind…maybe, but I think that’s about it…we shall see
I just do not see it happening with the indices the way they are.
I swear this guy’s work is about as reliable as a wet paper bag…how do you go back to this… literally overnight? C’mon! I mean at this point your better off just saying you have no clue you just want clicks
LOL yeah I will stick to the CPC and only 7 days out.
Good rule
Your probably right…it’s sad but probably right
Any weather forecast model past 48 hours should be ignored and that goes for all of the models and indices especially the kyle model that changes with every day.
Any forecast past 24-48 hours ignore it..it’ll save you a lot of un warranted worry or excitement depending on what sort of weather you like. Long range forecast models are just for…Read More
Somebody is bout to get crushed with snow in the Mid-Atlantic!
Looks like I will
Lol!!! Well get ready!….lol!!!
Kind of hard to believe it will happen with it being in the 50’s down here in south central PA, but we shall see, I’m thinking rain at the onset and then switching over to snow later on, unless that cold air is moving really fast southward
This could be one of those storms where the temperature starts above freezing at the outset on Sunday and then as the column cools all the way down to the surface it drops. That happened here with the 93 storm as it was 32 at the outset and at the height of the storm it had dropped to 16 and this was during the daylight hours. I just hope the…Read More
YES!!!! I remember that back in 93…I kept saying in the begining…it’s like 50 degrees out…it’s not going to snow! And the storm quickly changed that and we ended up with like 30+ inches with snow drifts up to 45ft
I believe Hagerstown had officially 34 inches and most roads if open were one lane for over a week including I-81.
I meant 45 inches
There is a place in northern Japan that is called the snowiest place on earth, and I have seen pictures of roadways there that look like railroad tunnels with cars going through.
I do recall pictures from out west in the mountains a few years ago with snow that high as well.
I’ll believe it when I see it.
Yeah 12z CMC says 2 ft in my area…I mean that storm would really have to cut loose for that to happen…I don’t see 2 ft…8-12 maybe…but 2ft…nope
I am really liking the set up with the fresh intrusion of arctic air Saturday night being forecasted. Maybe we get lucky this time if you want a descent storm before winter says good-by.
For some reason the weekend storm looks more formidable on the Canadian 12z model then the GFS..and a bit further north then the GFS 12z
JB is saying a warm is coming, but all of euro products can’t be wrong in the 6-13 day forecast
And then there’s this…by March 1st…but again it is the 18z…lol!!!
A bridge too far.
One day one of these crazy runs will verify, not likely in my lifetime, but one day…
Oh for hevens sake..
Snow maps more than a few days out should be outlawed.
GFS are always hilarious.
