All the Weather All the Time!
ajavella10
Good morning, 35 here in south eastern Palm Beach county. Some “frozen” iguanas in the yard!
They’re getting a nap in before it gets hot again. lol
Kyle Model is so Sensitive to the SOI values. It seems to take a day or 2 to adjust to the up and down sois but I think we will see it back to the -AO -NAO +PNA much of the time. Bring on the Florida cold fronts!
SE FL coast rain totals. street / urban flooding was widespread.
Have a great Birthday Henry!
How about the GFS going tropical already!
They really have to adjust the SOI inputs into the models . We knew we would see them light up after the values dropped.
Last 7 days the Eastern Pacific is warming up.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/
Wondering if SOI values are forecast to drop in the next 10 days ? Once that happens if it does the models will be even more fun to watch .
Was it the deviation or medium you were looking for in the video? Yes I do not like those average maps. For example where I live, in January we can have a week where it’s highs of 70-75 lows of 55-60 then one day it’s 88 low of 74 which makes the average above normal. There has to be a better way to show future temperature ranges.
Medium
905mb incredible.
Not for nothing but some of us were calling click bait on the potential Florida Storm headlines a couple days ago. I’ll hold myself accountable! 🙂
Weather can be unpredictable.. Now models that didn’t see a storm are now calling for a hurricane headed towards Florida.
For sure. I posted tongue in cheek.
Looks like a typhoon recurving next weekend.
Getting to the video late today—Congratulations!
Feel better!
Safe and efficient travels Henry- The weatherkid will bring the Snow east!
The SOI values the last 2+ weeks have gone too far with fueling that subtropical jet.
Is the GFS going to have a hurricane at 360 hrs+ every run this winter? 🙂
12z GFS the storm and Tammy are east. Great call Henry. It will probably waver a bit but in the end it will be right,
Good thing North West NJ has been dry. Those storms look like they are training south to north.
Current Indices and their weighted role in the current pattern: AO 60% SOI 20% PNA 10% NAO 5% MJO 5%
